5 points Ben Bernnke is different
Posted Sunday, Oct. 30, 2005Ben Bernanke knows he's filling big shoes. So when President Bush chose the White House's relatively new top economic adviser to succeed Alan Greenspan as chairman of the Federal Reserve, Bernanke professed alignment with the Maestro. The "top priority," he said, will be to "maintain continuity" with Greenspan's way of doing things.
Bernanke, 51, seems suited to that task in ways big and small. Both men are independent thinkers who tilt gently to the political right. Greenspan is a consensus builder who rarely convenes a meeting without knowing every vote. Bernanke built a similar reputation running the economics department at Princeton from 1996 to 2002. "When he took over the chair, there was a lot of infighting and bickering," recalls Gene Grossman, a colleague at Princeton. "He made it one of his objectives to get more consensus on decisions." Greenspan and Bernanke play the saxophone and possess a wry sense of humor. Chided by the President for wearing tan socks with a dark suit, Bernanke bought more pairs and persuaded the Vice President and others to wear them.
Greenspan navigated the economy through the stock-market crash of 1987, two recessions, a global financial crisis in 1998 and the burst Internet bubble in 2000. Assuming (as most do) that the Senate will confirm him for the most powerful economic post in the world, the era of Bernankenomics will begin Feb. 1, under gathering storm clouds. U.S. deficits are at all-time highs, the housing market may be in a bubble of Greenspan's making, and we have the first real whiffs of inflation in years. How will Bernanke steer the ship? For a clue, here are five ways that Ben Shalom Bernanke is not Alan Greenspan:
1. A Science Rather than an Art
Bernanke , who was named Chairman of the President's Council of Economic Advisers after serving on the Fed's board of governors for three years, believes in a predictable approach to fighting inflation. Greenspan, in contrast, is a connoisseur of esoteric statistics and counts on the freedom to weigh them however he deems wise at the moment.
In Bernanke's view, to lessen the possibility of a surprise that could create panic, it is paramount that financial markets understand what the Fed is doing. Although he believes in balancing formulas and judgment calls, Bernanke has argued for picking a target rate for inflation and making clear that the Fed would cut interest rates when inflation fell below the target and raise them when it pushed above. Bernanke's presumed target: about 3% for the Consumer Price Index.
Greenspan believed targets would box him in. For example: if inflation markers were in place now, the Fed might be raising rates more quickly since hurricane damage on the Gulf Coast caused fuel prices to spike. Greenspan's approach allows him to factor in how long oil production may be curbed and what will happen when prices recede.
2. A Softer Line on Inflation
Page 1 of 3 1 2 3 Next >>From the Nov. 07, 2005 issue of TIME magazine