Markets Stocks

Markets, Stocks and wave counts

Singapore market
In our previous commentary on the Singapore bourse, we mentioned that
the
rebound off a prior low of 2016 was very likely a bear trap and
indicated
resistance at 2247-2253. We also indicated our expectation of  a
decline
back to a level "marginally below 2200".  Our working assumption then
was
that we could see a stronger tradeable  corrective rebound off the
2285-2290 level. The index had subsequently rebounded from that zone
and
risen by almost 90 points. Several market observers have termed this a
mini
bull run. We think it is premature to be of that view. The index has
not
re-established a new uptrend, nor has it gained half of it's losses
from
August high of 2399. In all likelihood, this is a  corrective structure
and
judging by internal wave patterns, Friday's high of 2280 appears to
mark
the terminal point of the corrective rebound.  We would hold on to this
view, unless the index manages to rise above 2295, which is a 50%
retracement level.  At this stage, we think that such a move is
extremely
unlikely. Concurrently, if the index breaks below Friday's low of 2258,
the
bearish scenario would be reaffirmed and the index could head down
towards
2150-2180. Watch out for property stocks to set the tone for the market
today. The sector had largely led the rebound and lackluster
performance
today could result in further weakening.

Stocks and wave patterns

Elliott wave theory as formulated by R.N Elliott was based on the
observation that market averages or indices reflect mass market
psychology
and that this behavior tends to trace out in a series of  patterns that
are
inter-related by the Fibonacci ratio. Individual stocks however rarely
take
on clear Elliott wave characteristics but are generally subordinate to
the
larger underlying psychology of the averages. We say this because all
to
often we see stock price projections being cast  on supposed Elliott
wave
patterns. To our readers, we opine that such a projection is against
the
basic principles of R.N Elliott and are less effective as compared to
traditional technical analysis.


Stocks.

1.Keppel Corp- Stock has crossed below the 100 day moving average but
has
managed to find support at the 200 day simple moving average near
$11.30.
That is a critical support level.  Despite positive news flow on the
stock,
overall momentum has been lackluster and the stock has also
underperformed
the ST Index in the latest rebound. If $11.30 breaks the next support
is
estimated at $10.70-10.80.

2. Keppel Land- Friday's price action showed a doji formation, where
the
close was the same as the open. The range was also narrow. The stock is
at
a critical make or break level. A close below $3.94 would be bearish
and
could bring the stock down to the  prior low fo $3.60 , while  a close
above $4.00 would be bullish.

Best Regards

K Ajith

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